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Team Nigma and OG will do battle this Tuesday on the second day of the BEYOND EPIC: Europe/CIS Dota 2 tournament, which features 12 teams and a US $200,000 prize pool.
With a back-to-back titles at The International under their belt, OG are the most successful Dota 2 esports organisation in the world. However, the current version of this European powerhouse has not been performing up to par with the expectations.
A lot of OG’s shaky performances come down to the fact they have struggled to field a complete roster since the turn of the year. Topias “Topson” Taavitsainen could not help his team at WeSave! Charity Play, ESL One Los Angeles 2020 – Online: Europe & CIS, WePlay! Pushka League, Gamers Without Borders and OGA Dota PIT 2020 Online: Europe/CIS, while Yeik “MidOne” Nai Zheng did not attend the ESL One LA and WeSave! events.
The only two events since the start of the year where we saw OG field a full roster were ESL One Birmingham 2020 – Online: Europe & CIS and BLAST Bounty Hunt. OG managed only 13th-14th place at ESL One Birmingham with a 1-6 record in the group stage but looked fairly solid at BLAST Bounty Hunt, where they reached the finals.
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Team Nigma’s 2020 results are all over the place and clearly show this team’s biggest problem: inconsistency. They deserve some slack, however, since many top-tier teams tend to struggle with stability in the online format.
Nigma’s biggest achievements of the year include titles from WePlay! Bukovel Minor 2020, WePlay! Dota 2 Tug of War: Mad Moon and WeSave! Charity Play – EU & CIS. They also took a swing at ESL One Los Angeles 2020, WePlay! Pushka League, ESL One Birmingham 2020 and BLAST Bounty Hunt, although they failed to see much success in those events.
The most recent of those outings was BLAST Bounty Hunt, where Nigma defeated Team Liquid (2-1), lost to Team Secret (1-2), bounced back with wins against Ninjas in Pyjamas (2-0) and Liquid (2-1) but suffered a devastating 0-2 loss against OG in the lower bracket finals to finish third.
OG enter this match with a 3-7 record from their last 10 fixtures, while Team Nigma went 5-5 in their last 10. That, however, does not take away from the fact that OG have yet to lose against Nigma.
These teams have met four times already in 2020 and each time it was OG who came out ahead. The aggregate map score shows an 8-1 lead for OG, who trounced Nigma only last Saturday, so it’s hard to agree with the bookmakers’ match odds on this occasion.
Even so, the over 2.5 bet is the way to go. OG have been struggling for consistency in recent weeks and we don’t trust them to deliver another sweep here.
Team Liquid and Nigma will clash for the eighth time in history this Tuesday in the opening fixture of the BLAST Bounty Hunt, which will see six of the strongest European Dota2 esports teams fight over a US $145,000 prize pool.
Seeing Nigma’s roster play against Team Liquid is still a bit strange, even now, eight months since they left to play under a new banner. While Kuro “KuroKy” Salehi Takhasomi and his crew enjoyed a very successful period at Liquid, they have yet to gain any serious traction since becoming independent.
While Nigma boast one of the most stacked Dota2 rosters in the scene, they are also one of the most inconsistent. At the start of the year, for instance, they made it to the Leipzig Major playoffs without losing a single map, only to drop games against Evil Geniuses and beastcoast to finish ninth-12th.
They followed that up with a grand finals appearance at the StarLadder ImbaTV Dota 2 Minor Season 3 Europe Qualifier and a title-winning run at WePlay! Dota 2 Tug of War: Mad Moon in February, which remain two of their best placements to date. Last weekend, Nigma also concluded their run at ESL One Birmingham 2020 – Online: Europe & CIS, where they lost to Team Secret (1-2) in the third round of the lower bracket to finish in fourth place.
Although the online format might have contributed to Nigma’s recent struggles, it’s still somewhat surprising to see the core of players that won The International 2017 put up such mediocre results. It seems like it’s only a matter of time before we stop connecting this roster with their legacy, but we can’t deny that Nigma, when at their best, can defeat anyone.
While Team Liquid are not the powerhouse they once were, they have put up some decent performances this year. TL finished fifth-sixth at the Leipzig Major, fourth at DOTA Summit 12, third at WePlay! Pushka League S1: Division 1, second at OGA Dota PIT 2020 Online: Europe/CIS and, most recently, fifth-sixth at ESL One Birmingham 2020 – Online: Europe & CIS after losing 0-2 to Nigma in the second round of the lower bracket.
Liquid have posted solid results in most of the events they have attended and picked up a couple of wins against formidable opponents. Overall, however, Aydin “iNSaNiA” Sarkohi and his crew have fallen short of the mark as they are yet to win any silverware this season.
What’s more, Liquid tend to struggle when facing Nigma, so their best bet heading into this match is to count on their opponents’ inconsistency.
Since December, when they clashed at the DreamLeague Season 13 Europe Closed Qualifier, these teams have met seven times. Team Liquid won three matches and eight maps, while Nigma picked up the remaining four series wins and 10 maps.
Their most recent two meetings took place last month at ESL One Birmingham: EU/CIS. The first match was played during the group stage, where Nigma reverse-swept Liquid (2-1) in a close match in which the third and final map took over an hour to decide. Their second meeting in the playoffs was much more one-sided, although it’s worth noting that Liquid were forced to replace iNSaNiA with Petu “Peksu” Vaatainen from OG.Seed for that clash.
It should come as no surprise that esports bookmakers have priced Nigma as favourites for this match, but we are not comfortable backing them at $1.73. Nigma are likely to come out with a win, but considering these meetings often go down to the wire, over 2.5 maps is a much more appealing option for us.
Two Dota 2 esports juggernauts will clash when Ninjas in Pyjamas and Nigma meet this Wednesday in the opening fixture of Group B at WePlay! Dota 2 Tug of War: Mad Moon.
Ninjas in Pyjamas will enter the tournament with high ambitions as they look to secure their first LAN title since June 2019, when they won StarLadder ImbaTV Dota 2 Minor Season 2. Peter “ppd” Dager and company had a rather slow start to the season, however, and have failed to achieve any notable results since pocketing the bronze medal at DreamLeague Season 12 back in October.
At ESL One Hamburg, Ninjas in Pyjamas finished seventh-eighth, to which they added a fifth-sixth result at DOTA Summit 11 and an unsuccessful run in the DreamLeague Season 13 North America Closed Qualifier. In the Leipzig qualifiers, the Swedish esports organisation finished fourth, thus narrowly missing out on the main event.
In January, Ninjas in Pyjamas bombed out of WePlay! Bukovel Minor 2020 at the group stage after two humiliating defeats against Geek Fam and Team Spirit. That poor performance ushered in major roster changes, which saw Nico “Gunnar” Lopez and Malthe “Biver” Winther kicked from the team in favour of Nikita “Daxak” Kuzmin in the first position and Rodrigo “Lelis” Santos in the third.
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With a new roster, Ninjas in Pyjamas appeared at the ESL One Los Angeles 2020 Europe Closed Qualifier and secured a spot in their first Dota Pro Circuit Major since the EPICENTER Major in June 2019 thanks to a commanding 2-0 win over Aggressive Mode in the third-place match. NiP still have a lot more to prove, however, and the upcoming tournament will be a perfect opportunity for them to do so.
Nigma have been all over the place in recent months. Shortly after signing the ex-Team Liquid roster back in November 2019, Kuro “KuroKy” Salehi Takhasomi and his squad took a swing at the DreamLeague Season 13 Europe Closed Qualifier but fell flat against Alliance in the third-place match. Nonetheless, Nigma rallied and pocketed a ticket for the Leipzig Major by winning the WePlay! Bukovel Minor in January.
With high expectations on their shoulders, the European mix got off to a flying start at the second Major of the Dota Pro Circuit (DPC) season, topping their group and earning a spot in the playoffs. There, however, Nigma hit a brick wall, as they failed to overcome Evil Genuises (1-2) and beastcoast (1-2), thus finishing the event in ninth-12th place.
Earlier this month, Nigma also crashed out of the ESL One Los Angeles 2020 Europe Closed Qualifier with a 1-1-2 record in the group stage. They were gifted another chance at the Los Angeles Major via the StarLadder ImbaTV Dota 2 Minor Season 3 Europe Qualifier, where they made it to the finals but lost against Alliance (2-3).
This will be the first meeting between these two rosters and it is hard not to be excited with what this fixture will bring, given that both sides field some of the best players in the Dota 2 scene.
Nigma come out ahead on paper because this squad finished The International 2019 as runners-up under the Team Liquid banner. However, their recent results fail to inspire much optimism.
At the ESL One LA Major qualifiers, Nigma lost to Aggressive Mode and produced a disappointing stalemate against Viking.gg. Although they did defeat OG Seed in the qualifiers and saw some success against stronger teams back in January, their performances overall are volatile. That is not to say Ninjas in Pyjamas are in a much better position in terms of their achievements this season, but they at least offer a semblance of consistency.
NiP seem like a safer pick here, as we can’t know for sure what version of Nigma we will see. That said, neither side has shown enough to convince us they are capable of a clean sweep, which is why we will predict the series to end in three maps.